The 2026 US Open women’s draw saw a 100% chalk semifinals, with the top four seeds meeting like clockwork in the semifinals. And like even more clockwork, Elena Rybankina and Aryna Sabalenka, the second and first seeds of the tournament, will meet in the final on Saturday night. We have so much clockwork.
To describe this match as simply as possible would be to point out that an apple is indeed a fruit. Sabalenka and Rybankina are the top two players in women’s tennis, the two best things going on the WTA tour and a high-stakes face-off between them is a fitting end to each of their seasons. Much as I would have loved an all-American final, this is objectively the highest-quality match.
Rybakina has, by virtue of the WTA’s point calculation system, already locked up the world number one ranking even if she loses the final which is … kinda lame if you ask me (I feel like if you’re number one coming into a tournament and then win that tournament you shouldn’t lose rank?). A true all-the-marbles throw-down with both the US Open trophy and the number one ranking on the line would be awesome, but we can deal. It is Rybakina’s first time being ranked number one, a deserved accomplishment given her relentless top-level form since 2019. Sabalenka will surely be a bit sour to lose the ranking she has defended for most of the last three years, but a fifth Grand Slam should pretty dry those tears.
If nothing else, I’m just thrilled we’re getting this matchup in a winner-take-all situation. Their last four meetings, all on hardcourt, were split 2-2, with Rybakina winning in the WTA Tour Finals and the Australian Open while Sabalenka beat her at Indian Wells and Miami. Both women bring something special to the battle, with Rybakina’s pace-setting serve and Sabalenka’s thumping ground strokes. It really is the highest possible level of the sport on its biggest possible stage.
Rybakina will be at a slight disadvantage given she will be playing three matches in four days to Sabalenka’s three in five days, but the difference should be marginal. It is persistently maddening to me that two of the four women’s semifinalists do not get a day off between the quarters and semifinals for no other reason than the US Open’s refusal to take a true day off between later rounds. I understand it keeps everyone’s attention, but no one should have to play a back-to-back at the end of a two-week tournament. The men’s bracket, meanwhile, has no back-to-backs.
But that should not distract from the sterling quality of the tennis about to be played on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Rybakina has really found her winning formula lately by bringing 70+ percent first serve win rate with a bucket-load of aces. Both she and Sabalenka are actually middling return players, but are perhaps the two best servers on tour (along with Linda Noskova). What both really do well, though, is consistently limit break opportunities for their opponents, tying for a tour-low 2.3 points against per service game.
Sabalenka still profiles as the more complete threat, and has won over 80 percent of matches this year — generally the number that signifies “being the best” from “trying to be the best.” However, and this may be a touch unscientific, it just feels like Rybakina’s year. She has played extraordinary tennis against extremely tough opposition, and I’ve been so impressed by her approach, mindset and laser focus. Sabalenka may have won their last four sets, but I’m just feeling a Rybakina victory in lieu of evidence beyond narcissistically thinking I know what winning tennis looks like. Rybakina is, plain and simply, playing championship tennis right now.