NBA Predictions 2026-27: Who wins MVP? Rookie of the Year? Our experts make their awards picks
With the 2026-27 NBA season here, it’s time to make our awards predictions. Who will take home hardware this season?
Who will be the Rookie of the Year?
Dan Devine: Cam Boozer, Grizzlies. Given the presence of more established All-Stars on their respective rosters, I’m not sure AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson will get the sort of offensive usage that allows them to rack up big numbers right away; Boozer, though, seems poised to step into a central role producing across the board in Memphis.
Nekias Duncan: Cam Boozer.I’m kiiinda on the record with a “Grizzlies will be in the play-in picture” take, and I don’t think they get there without the multifaceted play of Boozer. He’s going to screen and receive screens off the ball, punish mismatches on the block, clean up the glass, and dust bigger players off the bounce. The Memphis context feels like one where he’ll be tasked with a lot, but not truly burdened to carry everything because of the (underrated) talent around him.
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Tom Haberstroh: Cam Boozer. I think the Grizzlies are going to shock people this season, with the very large caveat that Zach Edey and Ty Jerome are healthy. I can’t believe Boozer is the youngest guy in his class. I said the same about Cooper Flagg last year and he won ROY.
Steve Jones: Cam Boozer. This should be a fascinating race to track over the course of the season. AJ Dybantsa plays with force and won’t be asked to carry playmaking. Darryn Peterson has a context that suits his game on- and off-ball. Caleb Wilson, no matter the adjustment, will compete. But I lean toward Boozer, whose versatility is a hand-and-glove fit with what Memphis wants to run. There are a lot of avenues where he can contribute.
Kelly Iko: Cam Boozer. I’m not sure if referring to some parts of Boozer’s game as a “more polished Paolo Banchero” is an insult or compliment, but I’m all in on the Grizzlies — for different reasons than others. There’s so much to unlock with him paired with Tuomas Iisalo and his penchant for skilled pseudo bigs, and I think the combination of his usage and versatility can be the floor for Memphis getting to 30 wins. Anything more is a bonus and should be enough to snag the award.
Who will be the Most Improved Player of the Year?
Jones: Ausar Thompson, Pistons. This could feel like a long shot considering there’s a world where already good players (Brandon Miller, Dylan Harper) take another leap and get that level of recognition. With Thompson, it appears the Pistons have bet on him taking a stronger leap offensively by working to get the ball in his hands and moving him around the court. If he continues to showcase confidence to get to his spots and attack off the bounce, the math on the Pistons could change. Also the defense. All of the defense.
Iko: Brandon Miller, Hornets. With LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges gone, head coach Charles Lee can fully shift principles towards Kon Knueppel and Miller — with the latter as my bet to take home this award. The runway is there for an uptick in playmaking and overall offensive usage, combined with some sneaky defensive chops and rim protection as a 6-foot-9 combo-ish wing. There’s some work to do regarding some of the types of shots he takes — he has a propensity to force things up when he’s compromised — but Lee is one of the brightest young minds around and should assist in that.
Haberstroh: Davion Mitchell, Heat. He slimmed down a ton in the offseason and looks like someone who’s going to thrive next to Giannis Antetokounmpo in Erik Spoelstra’s demanding uptempo system. Like NAW before him, Mitchell will shed his defensive specialist reputation and become a two-way force.
Devine: Jaden McDaniels, Timberwolves. Now, will he actually be notably and demonstrably better than he’s been in recent seasons, where he’s ticked up his scoring, shooting efficiency and complementary playmaking while consistently performing like an All-Defensive Teamer on the wing? Or will running alongside LaMelo Ball just get him the extra couple of buckets per game that make him a 20-plus-point scorer, which in turn makes everybody look a little closer at those year-over-year improvements? If it results in a trophy … who cares, I guess, right?
Duncan: Payton Pritchard, Celtics. He should see a bump in minutes and responsibility following the Jaylen Brown trade, paired with any in-season maintenance that may be had for Jayson Tatum or Paul George. I’ve also been pretty moved by the playmaking he displayed during the preseason; that feels like a skill/mentality shift that can carry over. As an aside: Since 2010-11, only three players (Kevin Love, Goran Dragić, Brandon Ingram) have won MIP on a team that didn’t finish with a top-eight record in the conference — even more nuts when you consider Dragić was on a 48-win Suns team that missed the playoffs. That’s the only reason why I’m not rolling with a Chicago Bull — Matas Buzelis and Leonard Miller, I see y’all.
Who will be the Coach of the Year?
Iko: Joe Mazzulla, Celtics. I’ve long beaten the drum for doing away with this award altogether and instead creating an All-Coaching team, but there are so many creative offensive layers to what the Celtics can do with Jayson Tatum and Paul George. Wings screening for each other, quick-hitting actions getting them both in motion, flanked by a flurry of floor spacers and bigs that inhale offensive rebounds to create extra possessions. Most folks assume this team has gotten worse, not me. This might be one of the more analytically inclined units Mazzulla has had during his tenure and, health notwithstanding (which might be asking a lot), this team should maintain its elite status out East.
Haberstroh: Erik Spoelstra, Heat. This feels like ripe conditions for the best coach in the NBA to finally win his first Coach of the Year award. Folks are sleeping on the Heat this season. A 46.5 over/under projection in Vegas? I’ll take the over. They have way more shooting than people think, and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a strong MVP candidate in this system. If they get the No. 1 seed, it’s a wrap for this award.
Devine: Will Hardy, Jazz. The coaches of most of the expected championship contenders might not get as much credit for a strong season as you’d anticipate, if voters attribute the performance more to the arrivals or returns of elite players to the lineup. There’s some of that going on in Utah, too — full seasons of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, the drafting of Darryn Peterson, etc. — but this is a bet that if they make a massive improvement (say, nearly doubling last season’s 22 wins?) there’ll be a steady drumbeat of, “See? I told you Will Hardy could coach if you just let him actually try to win.”
Duncan: Tuomas Iisalo, Grizzlies. Much to my chagrin, Coach of the Year is largely the “We Didn’t Think Y’all Would Do That” award, which sets up Iisalo’s Grizzlies as a firm candidate to exceed external expectations. The best case of a roster like this — filled with advantage maintainers, but not headlined by a top-30 guy (at least not yet) — is one that can hit you with waves. With the combination of pace, spacing principles, and defense-tilting actions Iisalo has put on film during his tenure, I’m pretty optimistic about what the offense will look like with this cast. If the defense can get to average, do not be surprised by 40+ wins.
Jones: Erik Spoelstra. I would not be surprised if anyone from the “second tier” in the Western Conference (Lakers, Rockets, Wolves, Nuggets) takes a hold of things, or if Mitch Johnson’s Spurs are just lights out, or if Rick Carlisle lurks around the corner, or if JB Bickerstaff finally does not finish in second place. But I’m going with Spo and the unconventional path he may take to integrate Giannis into what the Heat do night in, night out. Combine that with his ability to get the most out of his roster, and this may be the year he gets his due.
Who will be the Defensive Player of the Year?
Haberstroh: Victor Wembanyama. This year and every year that he’s healthy. The three-guard lineup will be a huge storyline to follow this season, and Wemby’s dominant defensive presence unlocks that possibility in ways that no other team can.
Devine: Victor Wembanyama. Real bold, I know. (If he doesn’t get to 65 games, I’ll take Chet Holmgren as the rim-protecting backstop of a Thunder defense that I expect to once again be at or near the top of the NBA in choking out opposing offenses.)
Jones: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs. It feels like the award is going to be his until someone takes it from him (or something something games played). There is a loud volume that Wembanyama brings on this end and it would take a louder case (and some significant defensive slippage from the Spurs) for that to go away. I am keeping my eye on Ausar Thompson and Bam Adebayo, though.
Duncan: Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves. I echo the sentiments of my esteemed teammates that Wemby is (and should be) the heavy favorite if he plays enough. If he isn’t, it’s worth noting that Gobert is still one of the best interior defenders in basketball, an elite deterrent — opponent rim rate has dropped by at least five percentage points with Gobert on the floor in nine of the last 10 seasons — and will likely have more of a magnifying glass on his efforts in light of how the roster has gotten smaller around him. If the Wolves flirt with a top-five defense again, he’ll once again lead the charge.
Iko: Can I propose a joint award for the Thompson twins? There’s still plenty of investment rounds left (leaning more toward Ausar than Amen because of role expectations), but I’m not sure if Wemby clears the required game total to be eligible this year. It’s certainly the Frenchman’s award to lose assuming he’s healthy all year, but Ausar will be nibbling at the heels for the next seven months.
Who will be the Sixth Man of the Year?
Duncan: Collin Murray-Boyles, Raptors. To get the obvious counterpoints out of the way: this is largely a (perimeter) scorer’s award, and injury woes with Jakob Poeltl could have Murray-Boyles starting enough games where he’d be ineligible. If he qualifies, I’m bullish on the impact Murray-Boyles can have on both ends of the floor. He’ll defend a little bit of everyone, and has already showcased a level of versatility and a budding intermediate game that I think he’ll build off of. I’m excited to watch him, Kawhi Leonard, and Scottie Barnes close games together.
Devine: Payton Pritchard, Celtics. High-scoring guard who checks in and instantly tilts games for a team that’s expected to be at or near the top of the standings? Sounds like the kind of guy who wins this award to me!
Iko: Jared McCain, Thunder. As much as we as a society would like to assume having moved on from the “microwave scorer” as a huge requirement for this award, I’d beg to differ. The departures of Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins open up even more minutes for McCain to step in and bring some much-needed punch off the bench. We’ll be paying close attention to Jalen Williams’ availability after some unfortunate run with injuries, but my bet’s on McCain if he becomes a nightly, reliable engine.
Jones: DeMar DeRozan, Nuggets. This one had Dylan Harper’s name all over it before the presumed move to the starting lineup. I am resisting the temptation to go with insert Portland Trail Blazers guard here, but it’s a strong possibility. There’s a world where someone debates Collin Murray-Boyles’ defensive impact vs. Ayo Dosunmu’s offensive impact in the spring. But I respect the delicate and subtle art of bucket-getting. DeRozan’s ability to do that could (somehow) stabilize the non-Jokić minutes.
Haberstroh: Jared McCain. He averaged 20.9 points per 36 minutes off the bench for OKC last season, and with Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins now in Atlanta, they’ve paved the way for a breakout season.
Who will be the Clutch Player of the Year?
Devine: Jalen Brunson, Knicks. Yes, it’s a regular-season award, but the guess here is that what he did during the Knicks’ championship run is going to stay lodged in a lot of voters’ minds, giving him a leg up on the competition.
Haberstroh: Jalen Brunson. I watched the NBA Finals.
Duncan: Nikola Jokić, Nuggets. Clutch numbers are generally volatile year-to-year, but Jokić has pretty consistently been a problem to deal with. He’s coming off back-to-back years where he’s finished in the top-three in clutch points, rebounds, and assists. In general, last season was the first time since becoming a full-time starter that he’s had a losing record in clutch games. I expect that to reverse course, and I expect his usual late-game dominance to shine through.
Iko: Kevin Durant, Rockets. With a healthy roster (and deep, depending on who’s asking), this team should find itself in several close contests — especially when it heads out East. Durant is coming in with something to prove after essentially missing out on the playoffs. If the Rockets wish to rub shoulders with the upper echelon, he’ll have the biggest say in the matter.
Jones: Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves. No doubt he wants to get the job done and no doubt he wants the ball in his hands late. It feels like he’s once again on a mission, this time with even more vibes!
Who will be the Most Valuable Player?
Haberstroh: Victor Wembanyama. I thought he was the per-minute MVP last season, but I couldn’t justify handing him the award when he played about 400 minutes fewer than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season. I don’t think Wemby will leave any doubt this time around.
Jones: Victor Wembanyama. Of all the questions I’ve had about the Spurs as they try to rebound from last season, one has stuck with me: What if Wembanyama just gets better? Each year he’s added a piece offensively, each season his compete level has been raised. If his two-way impact is even stronger than last season, it will be hard to deny him. Feels like a stacked list in October, and I can’t wait to check in on it all season.
Duncan: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Heat. If the preseason is any indication, Miami’s spacing principles (not just the opening alignment, but the cutting and relocating around it) and break-neck pace feels like a hand-in-glove fit for the former MVP. If he’s healthy enough, something like 31-11-8 on 60+ true shooting will not be out of the question. Toss in strong defense on top of that, and he’ll be seen as the reason the Heat eclipses 50+ wins — putting him firmly in the conversation.
Devine: Victor Wembanyama. Feels like last year was the arrival, and this year’s the coronation. If he doesn’t get to 65 games, I’ll stick with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s done nothing over the last two years to suggest that he won’t be at or near the top of this list for the foreseeable future.
Iko: Victor Wembanyama. Ditto the reasons my esteemed colleagues laid out, but I just think that his new playmaking adventure can be a seismic shift in how his game is synthesized across the NBA, and his never-ending quest to avenge the Finals defeat should be enough motivation for a remarkable campaign.
