2026 NBA playoffs: Who will win it all? 25 takes on the East, West and Finals predictions
The 2026 NBA playoffs will feature legendary matchups, intriguing questions and all kinds of X-factors. But who has the most at stake this postseason, and who will ultimately win it all? Our writers weigh in.
What’s your take on the East?
Tom Haberstroh: Boston’s magical run will continue to the Finals. In training camp, if Boston envisioned a best-case scenario for the regular season, the actual 2025-26 season would be it. It’s one thing for Jayson Tatum to come back healthy. It’s another thing for him to look like the Jayson Tatum of old. And he has. Bad news for the East.
Ben Rohrbach: The Celtics are the only team in the East capable of contending with the West. The Pistons lack a secondary creator. The Knicks have defensive holes. The Cavaliers rely on James Harden to get them over the hump in the second round. Not to say any of them cannot beat the Celtics. I just think none of them have a shot in the Finals. Only Boston, with a healthy Tatum, can challenge the depth of whoever emerges from a gauntlet in the other conference.
Everything to know for the NBA playoffs: Predictions, series previews, X-factors
Kelly Iko: I’m not saying there’ll be an upset, but I’m not saying there won’t be one. Over the final two months of the regular season, the Spurs and Thunder are first and second in net rating. The next two on the list? Hawks and Hornets. I say this with the assumption that red-hot Charlotte gets past Orlando (this may be a jinx), but even with how the Hornets and Hawks are set up — opposite ends of the pace spectrum — the mandates are clear: spread the floor, move the ball and have different pressure points of attack. Both look like very, very tough outs.
Dan Devine: I think all of the favorites will make it out of Round 1, but all of them will have to sweat to do it. The Pistons have been the most buttoned-up team in the East all season, and might wind up staring down a perpetual chaos machine out of Charlotte. The Celtics look like a war machine, but there’s nothing fun about having to try to corral Tyrese Maxey for 48 minutes (or more, if Nick Nurse can bend space-time to play him even longer than that). Knicks-Hawks and Cavs-Raptors are both pace-of-play style clashes, and the favorites are going to have to work to maintain control of the wheel. Nothing in the East feels like an obvious walkover, which makes everything more compelling. Styles make fights. Weaknesses force innovation. Perfection is boring; let’s embrace being fractured and have fun getting weird.
Nekias Duncan: There’s a heightened level of the “unknown.” Take Cavs-Raptors; their regular-season matchups happened before Thanksgiving. We are getting a fresh look at these two in a high-stakes setting. We only got one “real” look at Hawks-Knicks back on April 6, and even that lacked positional cross-matching from the Hawks’ side — they didn’t stash a wing on Karl-Anthony Towns with their center (Onyeka Okongwu) roaming off of Josh Hart, a popular gambit — that I’m sure we’ll see this time around. Health permitting, you can build a reasonable case to any of these teams winning multiple playoff rounds; that feels rare.
What’s your take on the West?
Rohrbach: The Spurs are every bit as good as the Thunder, and the Nuggets are as good as both of them. Every metric imaginable suggests that San Antonio, with Victor Wembanyama, is on par with OKC, the defending NBA champions. Denver would have exceeded 60 wins, too, if it had been healthy all season. With apologies to the Timberwolves, who could beat the Nuggets in the first round, one of three teams is winning the West — and all might have an equal chance.
Iko: Outside of another Nuggets-Wolves rerun, this might be the most ho-hum first round seen in quite some time. I don’t expect either Oklahoma City or San Antonio to bat an eye at the Warriors/Suns or Blazers, and outside of a few Kevin Durant/LeBron James moments, I’m not losing sleep over Rockets-Lakers. Seems like everyone is just waiting on the Spurs and Thunder to meet once again.
Duncan: I love the tests the top three teams will get to start their postseason run. Most would agree the Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets — in whichever order — are the likeliest teams to represent the West in the Finals this year, but they also have to face some demons before we get there. The Thunder will either see the Stephen Curry-Draymond Green combo, or a Suns team with an annoying defense that’s had them in a headlock in different points of their regular-season matchups. The Spurs have to face a Blazers group with defensive personnel that can tap into all sorts of pressure and cross-matching looks. The Nuggets have to face the Timberwolves. Again. Bring me all of it.
Devine: I think the Thunder are going to waltz to the conference finals, and I think that whoever they face coming out of the other side of the bracket will have had to basically go through “The Raid” to greet them there. That doesn’t mean they can’t get got, but they were already the favorites for a reason, and the way the seeding fell seems pretty ideal for them.
Haberstroh: Spurs-Thunder in the West Finals, please and thank you. This is The Next Great NBA Rivalry, and I really hope we see these two behemoths face off against each other. There’s lots of bad blood here between Wemby and OKC, and I pray to my lucky stars everyone stays healthy enough to make it a reality.
What’s the biggest question in these playoffs?
Devine: How are those hammies feeling, Aaron Gordon? The answer could be the difference between Denver climbing back to the top of the mountain or bowing out in Round 1.
Haberstroh: Does playoff experience matter anymore? I argued it doesn’t. Or at least not as much as it used to. More than ever, player health matters way more than playoff pedigree. For Detroit and San Antonio, two 60-win teams whose cores have never made it out of the first round, I really hope they can bust the playoff experience myth.
Rohrbach: I’m with Tom. The Spurs lack the requisiteplayoff scars to compete for a title, at least historically speaking, but will it matter? It didn’t for OKC last season. But a bigger question may be: Can Jayson Tatum be Jayson Tatum? Few players have more playoff scars than Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If Tatum can perform at an All-NBA level, and he has been close, the Celtics could absolutely win the East, and they might even have a chance against the West’s winner.
Iko: Two defensive trends have been on my mind throughout the regular season: pressure rates and putting two on the ball, forcing teams to beat you in 4-on-3 scenarios. What does that look like in the playoffs when everything allegedly slows down, rotations are shorter and every possession is the most important one? Is the NBA truly an individualistic league or is the copycat syndrome here to stay?
Duncan: Like Kelly, my mind also shifts to defense. We’ve seen an uptick in full-court pressure, more audacious cross-matching — KAT will see wings, and I’m sure Stephon Castle will see centers at some point — and a wide variety of zone looks this season. How much of those gambits will carry over, when they’ll be deployed, and how quickly offenses can find answers to them loom pretty large to me.
Who has the most at stake this postseason?
Iko: Anthony Edwards might be too harsh of an answer, but certainly the Wolves as a whole. After two straight exits at the conference final stage, both defeats coming in just five games, my eyes are glued to Edwards and Minnesota. A difficult matchup with a familiar foe could send them packing early, which would undoubtedly put pressure on the organization. Have they done enough to build a contending roster, having tried various approaches? We all saw the Edwards/Jalen Johnson interaction from All-Star weekend — do those seeds of doubt start to creep in?
Haberstroh: James Harden. He has 17 postseason runs in his NBA career, and yet he’s still looking for his first championship. With Chris Paul retiring, the focus turns to Harden as the no-doubt Hall of Famer who is still trying to bring home the elusive Larry O’Bee. The Cavs certainly have a shot, but so have all of Harden’s 17 teams.
Duncan: I think it’s the Cavs by default. When you trade away a young star talent in Darius Garland — hampered with a toe injury, but a star talent nonetheless — for a better but much older option in James Harden, you’re signaling two things: 1) What we have isn’t enough to where we want to go, and 2) We need to get this done right now. I wouldn’t rule out a Finals run for the Cavs, but they kinda need to make it there in a way the others, sans New York maybe, don’t. We’re probably having Harden, Evan Mobley and, to a lesser extent, Donovan Mitchell conversations if this team bows out in the second round, and we’re definitely having them if they lose to the Raptors.
Rohrbach: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. What’s at stake for SGA over the next two months? Back-to-back championships, back-to-back regular-season MVPs, back-to-back Finals MVPs. Here’s who has done that before: LeBron James (2012-13) and Michael Jordan (1991-92). Bill Russell would have done it three times from 1961-63 if the Finals MVP existed at the time. (The award is named for him now.) Point is: SGA could be in some GOAT conversations soon.
Devine: Well, the Knicks’ owner — after firing the head coach that brought the franchise to its first conference finals in 25 years — went on the radio and said the team should not only make the NBA Finals, but win it all … and then the Celtics beat them out for the No. 2 seed, got their best player back and seem to be raring to go for a second-round rematch. That seems like a pretty good reason to think that everyone in New York is feeling an immense amount of pressure right about now.
What’s your Finals prediction?
Duncan: Thunder over Celtics. There have been worthy challengers this year, notably the Spurs with their regular-season dominance in their matchups, but nothing has really shaken me off my belief that the Thunder are the best team in basketball. Having the Spurs and Nuggets on the other side of the bracket makes their pathway even more favorable. Ultimately, I think SGA is going to cap off one of the greatest seasons of all time with another championship.
Haberstroh: Spurs over Celtics. I’ve long believed that Victor Wembanyama is on the GOAT path, and he has a golden chance to solidify that here. OKC barely got past Denver and Indiana last year and these Spurs are better than those squads. With a little injury luck breaking San Antonio’s way, I think Wemby and the Spurs win it.
Devine: Thunder over Knicks. I went with that before the season, and I am not a completely spineless coward devoid of morals or self-respect, so I’ll stick with it now.
Iko: Spurs over Cavs. San Antonio has the schemes, personnel and most importantly, the mental edge necessary to delay a dynasty and get past Oklahoma City. And I might be the only person in America that thinks Cleveland has a Finals-ready roster in the Eastern Conference, but if James Harden and Donovan Mitchell can’t make a deep run now, I doubt they ever will. In any case, this would be a fresh switch-up.
Rohrbach: Thunder over Celtics. I picked Nuggets over Cavaliers at the start of the season, and I haven’t seen nearly enough from either team to trust them to win four rounds. OKC, on the other hand, will be favored in every series it plays in these playoffs, even against the Spurs, Nuggets or Celtics, all of whom could beat the Thunder. This is going to be fun.
