West contenders face big questions in sprint to playoffs: Which teams have fatal flaws?
There is a beauty in the basketball we see after the All-Star break. The fun is in the sprint toward the playoffs when we can see and feel the urgency from teams, identity against identity, working to sprinkle in more game plans. There is a separation from how good you are as a team and a pivot into how much can you sustain that good. Teams are working to put each other in a box and they have to problem solve their way out of it.
How much do you believe in what you do? How many different ways can you get back to it?
With that in mind, I’ve been sitting and thinking about the Western Conference, where the Oklahoma City Thunder have fallen off their early historic pace and now have company at the top of the conference.
OKC and San Antonio: Battle for West’s top seed
Injuries have defined this stretch for OKC, but the team has found a way to stay on the right course. We all have someone in our lives who looks out their window on the weekend, takes a deep breath and admires their work. That’s the feel I’ve gotten from Mark Daigneault during this stretch.
OKC’s focus on next man up, executing on offense and harassing teams defensively has held steady no matter who has been on the court. Casually adding Jared McCain’s playmaking and shooting has helped, but the Thunder have been able to play through Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein to balance things on both ends of the floor with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams sidelined. Meanwhile, the lights may be brighter on Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and a host of others, but they have kept the ball (and effort) moving.
The tricky part for the Thunder is that team in San Antonio refuses to go away. It’s one thing for the Spurs to have beaten the Thunder four out of five times this season, it’s another for the Spurs to have not lost a game in the month of February (nine straight wins), meaning they are now only three games behind the Thunder for the top spot in the West.
It’s easy to point to the play of Victor Wembanayama on both ends of the floor, but when you see the Spurs you see a team that is playing with more poise, more composure and more belief in what they are doing on both ends of the floor. Stephon Castle is willing to defend anyone on the planet, De’Aaron Fox has brought a consistent presence for this team, and when you watch them you see a team that understands the assignment.
The Spurs may not have everything they need, but they have positioned themselves as a real threat that can make a run with how they defend and how they attack offensively.
That brings me to the rest of the playoff teams.
Big questions for rest of West contenders
The Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves have had me in a headlock for the last few days. If you look at the Western Conference standings you can see just how tight things are between them. With every night, a win or loss could send them to a different position in the standings.
At a time of year when you’re supposed to be sharpening who you are as a team, the discomfort of the Western Conference delivers an alternate reality: two of these teams will advance and knock on the door of a conference finals run, two will go home early and disappointed, and there is a high likelihood they face each other to determine their fates.
It does not help that this is also the time of year where the feeling of a fatal flaw begins to stick to you as a team. It could be an inability to perform in the clutch, an inability to defend consistently, an inability to put enough lineups out there to navigate difficult moments.
Houston Rockets: They are currently the 3-seed in the Western Conference and, at times, it doesn’t feel that way. This is one of the top defensive units in the NBA, and they have used that as a base to put themselves in this position. But will that be enough to make up for the question marks they have offensively?
This is a team that is comfortable playing methodically in the half-court, but is that what hampers them in clutch time? Kevin Durant has accelerated their path and has the ability to take and make all of the shots that can throw a defense’s scheme over the top rope, but what can boost that? How much does this team need Alperen Şengün to not only make plays, but be the type of offensive player that draws help from defenses? How will Amen Thompson adjust to alternating between spacing in the dunker spot and being an on-ball attacker when defenses are willing to switch and go under? Will Reed Sheppard, who has continued to grow, be able to find a consistency on offense to stay on the court when teams look to attack him defensively?
Denver Nuggets: They would seem like the team to elevate from this group on paper. Years of talking about the “non-Jokić minutes” have turned into a balanced roster that could thrive in those moments and went 10-6 when he was out due to an injury. That would be an unbelievable boost in most years, until you realize their recent 3-6 stretch has come with him back on the court.
This feels like a team that needs to get healthy more than anything (Denver is 8-2 with the starting lineup of Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić), but what do they do in the interim? How do they push themselves to prepare for the playoffs?
This stretch could be a reminder that, while they have worked to add more things defensively to adjust, they do not have the wiggle room on that end of the floor. An inability to contain dribble penetration, rough transition defense and breakdowns against cutters are things their defense simply can’t afford. As good as Murray and Jokić are, the absence of Gordon has taken a bite out of their ability to punish teams in clutch moments. And as high as the highs have been for the Nuggets, how many little things are chipping at their ceiling as we approach the playoffs?
Minnesota Timberwolves: They have made back-to-back conference finals which should have them out of this group, but questions remain. This is a team led by Anthony Edwards — who should have the Clutch Player of the Year sent to him by now — that features improved play from Julius Randle and Jalen McDaniels and the defensive presence of Rudy Gobert. The formula is there. The Wolves can beat anyone in the NBA. But it also feels like they can lose to anyone in the NBA.
Effort and focus should be raised come playoff time, but can they put themselves in a position to capitalize on it? Are they secretly a team built for the playoffs that understands the assignment, or do they have a fatal flaw as a team destined to knock on a door they are not meant to open?
Los Angeles Lakers: They boast Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, a trio that I maintain you don’t want to have to deal with come playoff time. Availability has been the toughest part as they have waited for most of the season to have all of their big 3 healthy to find a level of consistency to match the potential. While most will point to the defensive end of the floor with this group, my eyes remain on the offense.
This is a group whose top players not only have to score, but have to score at a high enough level that defenses feel the need to help, which opens up plays for everyone else. When teams feel they can pressure and stay at home, will the Lakers be able to keep pressure on teams? When the offense slips, is that when you truly feel how little the defense can make things up in the moment?
This team has a high ceiling and a lot of firepower, but little margin for error. The Lakers have mixed in zone, switching, help and activity to disguise their defensive woes, but if the offense is not firing at 100% they have a tough time masking those issues. The talent will always give them a shot, and a playoff game plan should open things up, but they have to make defenses blink consistently.
All of these teams have strengths, most have weaknesses. The question becomes, how can they poke at each other on their journey toward a championship? To navigate this conference you will have to do it on both ends, with the versatility to get back to who you are and an identity you can lean on. Only time will tell which teams are sharp enough to find a way come spring.
