Early NBA All-Star picks: How Team U.S. and Team World rosters could look
We’re roughly a month into a wild, wacky, and ultimately entertaining NBA season. We’ve had the usual blend of fun: dominance at the top (hi, Oklahoma City), a star-studded MVP race, an intriguing rookie class, plenty of overtime thrillers, breakout stars, and where-did-you-come-from team performances — the Hawks, Raptors, and Suns seem to be prime candidates right now.
We recently got word of this year’s new All-Star format, yet another round of tweaks as the NBA at large tries to find a way to recapture some of the magic — and overall interest — of the past. This year will see the introduction of a Team USA vs. Team World format, but with a bit of a twist.
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There will be three teams of eight players (24 total, no positional limit) involved in a round robin mini-tournament. Among the player pool, 12 must come from each conference.
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The teams will play each other once — Team A vs. Team B, the winner facing Team C in the second game, then the loser of Team A vs Team B facing Team C in the third game — with each game consisting of a 12-minute period.
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The top two teams will play each other in the championship game. If the initial three games end with each team having a 1-1 record, the tiebreaker will be the overall point differential.
I ultimately don’t mind the attempt, though I have some history-keeping and back-of-the-roster questions in the event that Adam Silver has to fudge things to make sure there are eight international players on Team World.
For the actual games, is a 12-minute stretch enough of a sweet spot for players to catch a rhythm and give an acceptable level of effort — the real issue with All-Star festivities the last few years — without risking injury? I guess we’ll find out.
With a decent sample of games in the books, I thought it’d be fun to take an early look at what the player pool could look like. A couple of notes before we get rollin’ and scrollin’:
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While there isn’t an official game played minimum for All-Star festivities, I personally use it as a consistent guardrail since I’m keeping tabs for award selections anyway. A 65-of-82 limit comes out to roughly 79% of games played; the league average for games played right now is about 13, meaning players would need to have appeared in at least 10 contests for me through Nov. 16. That’s the primary reason you won’t see Anthony Edwards (9 games), Bam Adebayo (8), LaMelo Ball (7) and others.
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After getting the 24, I tried my best to split it into Team East, Team West, and Team World. There were ultimately more Team World representatives from the West than the East, so I did my best to do a little balancing. I can’t wait to see how the NBA splits or drafts things once we get to February.
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Because it’s me, there will be honorable mentions. And be aware that this is ultimately my abbreviated list. I don’t hate your favorite team or your favorite player (non-legal issue division), I promise.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
EASTERN CONFERENCE REPS (* denotes Team World member)
Giannis Antetokounmpo* (MIL): 32.6 points (64/50/64 shooting splits), 11.3 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.1 blocks
There’s been more on the plate of Giannis this season, which has led to career highs in points and assists — and, quietly, more per-possession inconsistency on defense than you’d like. Still, this is the best player in the East — and the most doubled player (26.2% of touches) in the league to this point — that can take over games on both ends when fully locked in.
Scottie Barnes (TOR): 19.7 points (54/41/81), 7.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.8 blocks
The Raptors are currently one of four teams with a top-10 ranking in offensive and defensive rating per Cleaning The Glass, with Barnes — sometimes literally — at the center of both. He’s oscillated between playmaking hub, screener (please make more contact), post threat, transition menace on offense. He’s been tasked with a little bit of everything defensively, with his off-ball exploits popping at an All-Defense level right now.
Jaylen Brown (BOS): 27.4 points (57/34/77), 5.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.8 steals
Brown has answered “How will he look without Jayson Tatum?” questions with, narrowly, the most efficient season of his career (58.7 true shooting) to this point of the season. He’s gotten buckets from just about everywhere, but it’s worth noting he’s been bonkers in the midrange — 49% per Cleaning The Glass.
Jalen Brunson (NYK): 28.0 points (52/37/86), 3.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.8 steals
Brunson has enjoyed the tweaks to the offense, more often getting to attack on the second side of actions and making quicker, still-fruitful decisions because of it. For a quick example: He’s having the best catch-and-shoot season of his career, draining 50% of his career-high 3.1 attempts from deep within that context.
Cade Cunningham (DET): 27.5 points (50/29/80), 5.4 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks
Cunningham is at the forefront of the East-leading Pistons, providing his usual blend of at-my-rhythm drives and playmaking chops. The efficiency is down, though he’s dealt with some spacing-deprived defensive lineups and more defensive attention. He’s seen a second defender on nearly 19% of his touches, the fifth-highest mark in the league among 138 players to log at least 500 touches.
Jalen Duren (DET): 19.4 points (64.7% on 2s, 80.8% on FTs), 12.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 blocks
Tag-teaming with Cunningham to produce the most voluminous ball-screen pairing in the league (209 picks, only duo over 200), Duren has been a legitimate two-way game changer. He’s setting bone-crushing picks, cleaning the glass, providing real juice as a scheme-versatile defender, and (literally) flashing mid-possession playmaking chops to keep the half-court offense moving. That brother’s getting paid this summer, and rightfully so.
Josh Giddey* (CHI): 21.9 points (49/37/77), 9.9 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 1.1 steals
The feel-good shine for the Bulls has all but run out; after a 5-0 start, they’ve lost six of their last seven games. If there’s good news to be had, it’s that Giddey’s second-half surge from last season has carried over into this one. His intuitive and daring passing continues to juice Chicago’s transition attack and overall productivity in the paint. His drives have become more physical, a welcome growth area for him. He is still hitting 3s, and has gotten friskier with his off-the-dribble attempts.
Jalen Johnson (ATL): 21.8 points (64/38/81), 9.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.8 steals
Since Trae Young went down with a knee injury, Johnson has stepped up: 22.4 points (63/46/78), 10.9 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.9 steals and a 6-2 record in the games he’s appeared in. In addition to remaining an elite transition scorer, Johnson has taken more ownership of the half-court offense as a ball-screen initiator and occasional hub. He was playing at an All-Star level last season before getting injured; hopefully he gets to cash in this season.
Tyrese Maxey (PHI): 32.0 points (48/42/88), 5.1 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks
It may just be time to call this Maxey’s team. Career highs across the board speaks for itself, but the command Maxey has displayed has popped off the screen all season long. His driving prowess and 3-point shooting remains in abundance; the growth in playmaking and floor-manipulation, and some of the shot-hunting he’s done in the midrange has made him incredibly difficult to deal with.
Donovan Mitchell (CLE): 30.4 points (62/38/83), 4.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.5 steals
It’s been an uneven season for the [checks notes] third-seed Cavaliers, but Mitchell has been phenomenal. Despite teams working hard to take away his paint touches — he’s seeing help on nearly 83% of his drives, a top-10 mark among high-volume drivers this season and a major step up from last year’s 75.2% clip — he’s been windmill-gathering his way into a bevy of touch shots and tough finishes at the rim. He remains an unconscious pull-up threat from beyond the arc, making him one of the most dynamic guards we have in the league.
Norman Powell (MIA): 26.1 points (48/48/93), 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals
A pleasant surprise, Powell has built on his fringe All-Star campaign from last season. He’s been an absolute rocket for the Heat this year; his blistering start from beyond the arc — he’s been the best 3-point shooter in the league among 32 players to take at least 7.0 per game — and quick-twitch drives have been necessary within Miami’s open season offensive attack.
Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK): 21.8 points (49/35/90), 12.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.9 blocks
It took Towns a little bit to adjust to New York’s offensive tweaks; it also took head coach Mike Brown some time to figure out the right blend and rhythm of Towns’ touches. It’s looked much better as of late; the Knicks are 6-1 over their last seven, with Towns averaging 24-12-4 on 61.1 true shooting.
Honorable mentions
Franz Wagner* (ORL): 23.1 points (51/36/83), 6.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals
Paolo Banchero (ORL): 21.7 points (53/25/77), 8.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks
The Orlando contingent will be important to watch moving forward, especially since they should both (technically) have eligibility for Team World if it comes down to it. I’ve enjoyed some of the shot profile refinement (read: soooo many more drives and free throws) from Banchero; the early transition seals and general downhill juice from Wagner continue to excite me.
Evan Mobley (CLE): 19.2 points (52/36/63), 9.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.6 blocks
Mobley’s averaging career highs in points, assists and steals, but it hasn’t felt that way. Similar to Mitchell, he’s seen an uptick of attention on his drives (51.9% help rate to 60.7% this year) and has leaned more on his jump shooting to counter. While he hasn’t been quite DPOY-level for me to start the year, he remains incredibly good on that end. It wouldn’t surprise me, nor should it shock anyone, if the Cavs find their footing and Mobley feels like more of a sure thing a few weeks from now.
Pascal Siakam* (IND): 24.6 points (49/36/66), 7.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 steals
It’s not his fault that the Pacers have essentially been an infirmary. I just want to note that, even within this context, Siakam has been a tough cover on all three levels. Please stay healthy, and please start making your free throws, brother.
Alex Sarr* (WAS): 18.3 points (52/35/74), 8.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 blocks
We’ll just say it hasn’t been a great year for the Wizards, but Sarr has undoubtedly been their best story — with respect to Kyshawn George’s start to the season. Sarr feels more refined as a screener, roller, and finisher. His playmaking continues to pop when they allow him to make above-the-break decisions. The rim protection remains a fun feature of his game; I wish he had more consistency in front of him so his talents would really pop on that end.
WESTERN CONFERENCE REPS (* denotes Team World member)
Devin Booker (PHX): 28.4 points (56/34/90), 4.1 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 0.8 steals
Sunday night’s loss to the Hawks bumped the Suns to 12th in defensive rating, so they’re no longer one of the top-10-on-both-ends teams, but they’ve been a real joy to watch. At the head of the snake is Booker, having the best scoring season of his career while handling an ungodly amount of traps in the process.
Stephen Curry (GSW): 27.4 points (57/38/93), 3.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals
Ask the Spurs: Curry’s still got it when he needs it. It feels odd to say Curry is slumping from deep when he’s converting at a 38% clip on over 11 attempts, but that’s the standard he’s set. Beyond that, he remains an electric scorer at all three levels, a dangerous screener, and an underrated playmaker (despite the assist numbers) because of the attention he commands.
Luka Dončić* (LAL): 34.4 points (60/33/79), 8.9 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 1.7 steals
There already isn’t much you can do with Dončić; that blend of size, playmaking, and scoring audacity is historically rare. When he’s making darn-near everything inside of, like, 12 feet, there really isn’t anything you can do with him.
Kevin Durant (HOU): 25.9 points (55/40/89), 4.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks
Durant remains metronomic as a scorer; did you know he’s on pace for his 14th straight season with a true shooting clip over 60? It’s absurd. The Rockets have moved him around as an off-ball threat, initiator, screener and, if all else fails, a late-clock security blanket. It isn’t always the cleanest process (I won’t apologize), but he’s largely delivered.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander* (OKC): 32.6 points (59/37/90), 5.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks
How on earth did this dude get better despite not playing a second with Jalen Williams yet? SGA has established a different level of command in the half-court. He’s averaging a career high in assists and a career low in turnovers (1.6 per game, 6.2 turnover rate). He has the highest rate of unassisted baskets in the league and is still logging the most efficient season of his career (65.2 True Shooting).
James Harden (LAC): 26.0 points (53/40/91), 6.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 0.9 steals
Harden logging the first 40-point triple-double in franchise history, and still coming away with a loss, feels like a microcosm of the season so far. Harden’s been a monster: an elite driver (1.12 PPP), playmaker, and shot-maker for a Clippers group still looking for some semblance of consistency.
Nikola Jokić*, Denver Nuggets: 28.7 points (77/43/88 shooting splits), 13.0 rebounds, 10.9 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks
An absolute no-brainer. He’s been the league’s best player and, due to his play and usage, virtually impossible to guard. He doesn’t miss inside the arc, he’s hitting 3s at a high clip, and he’s arguably the best passer in basketball. More quietly, he’s more than held his own as part of Denver’s scheme-versatile, third-ranked defense. Here’s a fun one: opponents are generating 0.88 points per possession on trips featuring a ball screen defended by Jokić, sixth, a hair ahead of Victor Wembanyama, among 28 players to defend at least 200 so far.
Lauri Markkanen* (UTA): 30.6 points (55/39/88), 6.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals
Talk about a bounce back season! Markkanen has been monstrous to start the year, an always-moving cog within Will Hardy’s screen-heavy offense. The shooting prowess should be well-known at this point, but Markkanen’s become a nastier driver this year. I don’t know how sustainable 30-a-night is, but he looks like a different dude. I’ve enjoyed it.
Julius Randle (MIN): 25.5 points (61/39/87), 7.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 steals
Somewhat similar to the Cavs out East, the Wolves have had to find themselves in the midst of injury woes, guard inconsistency, and teams looking to attack them in different ways. The constant this year, in a pleasant surprise, has been Randle. The blend of bully drives — among 64 players to log 100 drives, Randle leads the NBA in points per possession generated (1.3) — pull-up shooting, off-the-bounce playmaking and occasional hub work has led to his most prolific and efficient season to date. In light of this, the Wolves have predictably died whenever he’s gone to the bench.
Austin Reaves (LAL): 28.3 points (61/33/87), 5.1 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.4 steals
Also in the “he’s gonna get paid” division, Reaves has leveled up as a scorer and playmaker. He took off with the runway provided in the absence of Dončić and the yet-to-play LeBron James, and it feels like the only thing that can stop him from maintaining this level of play is lingering effects of the groin injury that took him out of four games. Keep an eye on his work between, say, 7-to-14 feet. His mix of shot-making and foul-drawing has had defenses in the blender all year long.
Alperen Şengün* (HOU): 23.0 points (49/45/74), 10.3 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks
I have really enjoyed the Şengün Experience. The awkward cadence of his drives, the fancy footwork, the audacious passes, the freedom with which he’s pulling from deep. The pick-and-roll reps as the ball-handler, his growing nuance and comfort defensively; it’s all popping for me. He’s firmly been Houston’s best and most impactful player this year — a huge sign of respect considering the Hall of Famer he’s playing with.
Victor Wembanyama* (SAS): 26.2 points (56/35/86), 12.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.6 blocks
We’ve never seen anything like this. Every night, there’s a what-the-heck block, a coast-to-coast possession, a dunk, a stepback three, something that defies conventional wisdom. He’s the league’s most terrifying defender, and this is with him still actively working on the nuances of coverages. While teams have had some success throwing junk defenses and double teams at him, Wembanyama has still been an effective scorer and playmaker that can bend a game to his will. It’s going to get better from here, somehow.
Honorable mentions
Deni Avdija* (POR): 26.0 points (56/38/86), 6.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.8 blocks
Only SGA (256) has logged more drives than Avdjia (223), and Avdija is quietly generating more efficient offense on those possessions (1.12 PPP to 1.11 PPP). In addition to his downhill attacks, he’s continued to put fun (and sometimes wild) passes on film while becoming more shot-hunty beyond the arc (career-high 6.8 attempts). It’s about to be a three-year sample of Avdija knocking down 3s at a high clip; this may just be him now.
Jimmy Butler (GSW): 19.1 points (54/47/86), 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.6 steals
Butler has fit in smoothly since joining the Warriors last season. Strong driver, smart passer, intuitive cutter, willing screener, and heady off-ball defender when fully locked in — that all plays within the Golden State ecosystem. As is generally the case with the Regular Season Butler Experience, you’d like more consistent aggression from him as a scorer, but it’s been a good season overall.
Stephon Castle (SAS): 17.3 points (62/24/69), 5.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.7 steals
Sans 3-point and free throw shooting, both below what you’d like from a guard or wing (in their context, anyway), there really hasn’t been much to poke at in regards to Castle. His interior craft continues to pop — his cadence, footwork, and late-passing is a joy to watch. He’s once again taken on some tough defensive matchups on the perimeter and largely held his own. Incredibly fun player.
Aaron Gordon (DEN): 19.9 points (58/47/89), 5.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals
Gordon’s been an important part of Denver’s post-heavy attack, his transition seals and random corner duck-ins causing early clock problems for defenses. Beyond that, this dude is shooting the leather off the ball. Shooting this well, making your own dinner within the flow of the offense, and also benefiting from the passing of Jokić with cuts and dunker spot roaming, and solid multipositional defense makes for an interesting All-Star case.
Chet Holmgren (OKC): 19.3 points (68/39/87), 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks
To be transparent, this was my toughest omission. It ultimately came down to two things. He’s missed time — four missed games and dealing with the Blowout Tax put him slightly behind in terms of total and per-game production — and his defense, while still excellent at the high-end, has been a little below his usual level. His pick-and-roll and rim protection numbers are notably sub-elite, though I expect that to round into form as the season goes on. Still, Holmgren has been phenomenal when available. His 3-point shooting is an obvious positive, but I’ve really enjoyed his midrange scoring this year. Having something he can consistently rely on in the half-court was really the only thing somewhat missing in his game.
Jaden McDaniels (MIN): 17.7 points (57/50/85), 4.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.3 blocks
Whew, buddy, the leap may be happening. I don’t think he sustains 50% shooting from deep, but reliable spot-up shooting and this amount of drives and midrange buckets should be enough to raise some eyebrows. He has had the ball in his hands more and hasn’t looked completely out of place. And of course, his defense remains nasty — even if it’s been more uneven against guards than we’re used to.
Jamal Murray* (DEN): 22.1 points (53/34/93), 5.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.4 steals
It normally takes Murray a bit to find his rhythm during the regular season. Him coming out of the gates on fire has been a pleasant and welcome surprise. As my esteemed cohost Steve Jones always says, you can tell if Murray’s feeling it by the look (and volume) of his drives; among that 64-player group with at least 100 drives, Murray ranks 8th in points per possession generated (1.17 PPP) to start the year.
Here’s an early look at what the rosters (and positional groupings, if you care) could look like as of today.
TEAM WORLD
Guards: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Wings: Luka Dončić, Josh Giddey
Forwards: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lauri Markkanen
Bigs: Nikola Jokić, Victor Wembanyama, Alperen Şengün
TEAM USA 1
Guards: Stephen Curry, Tyrese Maxey, Devin Booker
Wings: Austin Reaves, Jaylen Brown
Forwards: Scottie Barnes, Julius Randle
Bigs: Karl-Anthony Towns
TEAM USA 2
Guards: Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, James Harden
Wings: Cade Cunningham, Norman Powell
Forwards: Kevin Durant, Jalen Johnson
Bigs: Jalen Duren
