The stage is set for round two of the NBA Playoffs. Here are three ways the Cleveland Cavaliers can ensure victory over the 60-win Detroit Pistons.
1. Shrink the floor
The Raptors and Pistons share a similar offensive profile. Neither team loves to shoot three-pointers, primarily because they aren’t very good at it. They’d prefer to score from the mid-range or attack the basket — led almost entirely by one primary initiator (more on this later).
That means Cleveland’s defensive game plan will be similar to round one. Pack the paint, shrink the floor, and dare someone to beat you.
Toronto surprised most of us with its efficiency. They nailed 35.6% of their three-point attempts in round one, the fifth-best of any playoff team this year. But they also struggled to score for long stretches, often because the Cavs declined to pay them any respect behind the arch. Shrinking the floor makes it really hard to score if you don’t have the personnel to shoot with volume.
That’s why the Raptors took the third fewest three-point attempts per game in round one, despite shooting better than anyone expected. They just didn’t have guys who could launch ‘em.
Neither do the Pistons… mostly.
Detroit has some weapons that the Cavs will have to monitor. Duncan Robinson can burn you. Tobias Harris is capable of big games. Even Cunningham shot near 40% from deep in round one. But truthfully, perimeter shooting is a weakness that the Cavs can exploit.
The Pistons shot the second-fewest three-pointers in round one and converted on the fifth-worst percentage. Harris, Dannis Jankins, Caris LeVert, and Javonte Green all shot below 30% from downtown. Thompson only attempted one three-pointer, which he missed. Neither big man in Detroit is likely to push their luck from deep either.
I’d expect the Cavs to totally ignore Thompson, and to dare everyone other than Harris, Cunningham, and Robinson to make them pay. I’d also expect the Cavs to win that gamble, given that the Pistons ranked 20th in three-point accuracy during the regular season — even worse than Toronto (18th).
2. Put it all on Cade Cunningham
Both the Cavs and Pistons battled to the end in round one. A seven-game series can be draining. More so, if you’re the one carrying the entire team on your back.
This isn’t to discredit Harris, who showed up big in Game 7 for Detroit, but let’s be real… Cunningham’s usage was through the roof during that series. He posted an absurd usage rate of 37%, matching Joel Embiid for the highest load in round one.
For comparison, Donovan Mitchell led the Cavs with a usage rate of 30%.
Carrying that much weight will wear anyone down. The deeper you go into the playoffs, the more of a toll it takes. Cunningham averaged 32 points on 22 shots per game in the first round. He’ll be asked to do something similar versus Cleveland. That’s a benefit for the Cavs.
The more pressure you can put on Cade to win this series on his own, the better. That means the Cavs will do everything in their power to limit Detroit’s supporting cast. The weight could be unbearable if Cleveland keeps a lid on the Pistons’ role players.
The Cavs are well-equipped to make Cunningham work. Dean Wade just had a phenomenal defensive series, while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will no doubt pack the paint and contest every drive. Even Max Strus and Sam Merrill have shown they can ramp up the intensity — while Jaylon Tyson is more than ready to be physical with Cunningham.
Cunningham averaged 18.5 points on just 34% shooting against the Cavs in four games this season. I’m sure he’ll be better than that in this series. But it shows the Cavs can give him problems offensively.
On the other end, Cleveland would be mistaken not to include Cunningham in as many screening actions as possible. He’s already being tasked with too much offensive responsibility, so the more they can challenge him defensively, the more exhausted he’ll become.
3. Attack mismatches
Not having to worry about Scottie Barnes will be nice.
Seriously, Barnes delivered one of the better defensive performances I can remember. It felt like he was everywhere, using his length, athleticism, and seemingly never-ending motor to disrupt everything Cleveland wanted to do. The backcourt struggled primarily because Barnes, along with Jamal Shead, RJ Barrett, Ja’kobe Walter, and Collin Murray-Boyles, made them struggle.
Can Detroit replicate any of that?
Some things are certain. The Pistons will try to muck things up by using Thompson on one of Donovan Mitchell or James Harden. He’ll pressure them up the floor and deny the ball whenever possible. Other Pistons will attempt to do the same.
But that’s where Cleveland starts to gain advantages.
The Raptors were loaded with length and athleticism on the wing. No matter who the Cavs brought into the action, Toronto was able to switch and swarm the ball with their wings. The Pistons — while a better defensive team — are arguably a better matchup for the Cavs from this perspective.
Thompson is a great defender. But Duncan Robinson is not. The Cavalier backcourt will feel significantly more comfortable attacking Robinson than anyone on the Raptors roster outside of Jakob Poeltl.
This extends down Detroit’s rotation. Harris is a fine defender, but I don’t see him matching Mitchell’s speed like any of Toronto’s best defenders. Duren isn’t as mobile as CMB. Jankins shouldn’t be as disruptive as Jamal Shead. Kevin Huerter might not even get on the floor, and if he does, could promptly be played off it.
That’s kind of a big deal.
The playoffs are matchup-dependent. You are only as strong as your weakest link. The Raptors’ baseline of having no bad defenders made it an eternal struggle for the Cavs offense to get rolling. But Detroit’s weak points will be tested at every available opportunity.
If that happens, Mitchell might remind us of why he’s become a perennial All-NBA player at this stage of his career.