Editor’s Note: It is our pleasure to introduce a second Leo to the Canis-verse. This is Leo Li’s first piece for CH, and he will be adding more insight into all things player development going forward. Please welcome him in the way only Canis commenters can!
Anthony Edwards’ development trajectory since entering the league in 2020 has been a topic of attention for several seasons now, and at first glance, it’s easy to see why. He was a 247Sports consensus 5-star recruit coming out of Holy Spirit Prep in Georgia, receiving comparisons to players like Dominique Wilkins and Dwyane Wade, among other all-stars and all-time greats.
However, after a one-and-done season for the Georgia Bulldogs marked by tantalizing highs and scoring explosions, as well as inconsistencies that exposed flaws in his game, serious concerns emerged about Ant’s decision-making, shooting, defense, and even his mentality and love for the game.
Heading into the 2020 draft (which was viewed as relatively weak), he wasn’t seen as a surefire star bet, and several mock drafts had him going behind future teammate LaMelo Ball, as well as the likes of James Wiseman and Killian Hayes (Kevin O’Connor, what were you thinking?), which seems absurd looking back.
As we all know, Ant would go on to be picked first overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves, and soon bloomed into a bona fide superstar and one of the best players in the sport.
Many would claim that Ant has significantly exceeded expectations, even considering the high pre-draft praise and excitement about his ceiling. I wouldn’t argue too hard against that. Most would agree that he has left the “realistic” or “sweet spot” comparisons of Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine in the dust. Is there any way that the projections were misinformed or unjustified? The red flags were certainly there, but perhaps scouts and fans were too hasty in taking them at face value. Given all the information we had access to pre-draft, is there a way to explain his current success?
All this is to say that, although hindsight is 20/20, was Ant perhaps underrated by many as a prospect? That is what I will be making the case for. By taking a look at the scouting reports and draft profiles, we can see exactly where assessments fell short and use evidence and data to paint a different picture of Anthony Edwards, the prospect.
Ant’s physical profile was universally viewed as a remarkable combination of positional size, explosive power, and quick-twitch burst. Standing at 6’5 with a 6’9 wingspan and weighing a hefty 225 lb, while boasting a 41.5-inch vertical according to BleacherReports’ Jake Fischer, he was unequivocally an athletic specimen; an elite NBA guard’s frame with the power and mass of a running back is extraordinarily rare even among the best of the best, and it allowed him to rise for athletic finishes and dunks frequently (27 dunks in the 2020 season). However, even with respect to the athleticism, I feel some of the nuance regarding Ant was neglected in pre-draft discussions.
The prevailing sense was that he was vertically explosive, big, and fast, which helps him finish at the rim and in transition. However, scouts were still understandably concerned about his ability to score efficiently at the next level. After all, even given these extreme athletic traits, he posted a mere 51.7% true shooting percentage at Georgia, landing in the 13th percentile positionally. So how do you explain his massive improvements as a scorer? It’s easy to chalk it up to any number of factors, but the most important one is a part of his athleticism that tends to fly under the radar, even today.
Prior to the draft, the P3 Peak Performance Project measured Ant’s eccentric force production in the 98th percentile (FYI, eccentric force is the force produced by a muscle during the stretching/lengthening phase, used for deceleration movements). They note that, crucially, this is a trait shared by James Harden and Luka Dončić, players who excel at scoring using change-of-direction, stop-start moves – which is also something that Ant improved at by leaps and bounds, and was key to his ascension into one of the league’s premier scorers.
While Ant didn’t enter the league with Luka-level polish skill-wise or decision-making-wise, the athletic foundation for his current dynamic skillset was already there. Using repeated bursts and sharp brakes is a proven formula for efficient self-created volume scoring at the highest level, and Ant had brakes of the highest caliber on an extremely powerful engine.
While this was already observable during his explosive, fluid downhill forays and several of his off-the-dribble jumpers, most scouts and fans seemed more enamored with his north-south and vertical traits. Part of the reason for this is that the sheer level of shooter Ant has become is, by any stretch of the imagination, a surprise, and not many thought it likely that these qualities could become the basis of an elite, efficient pull-up 3-point shooting game, hence the comparisons to players like DeRozan and even optimistic ones like Wade, whose deceleration qualities are often overlooked.
Ant’s jump shot, which is arguably his most deadly weapon today and a focal point of his skill set, was a question mark going into the draft. His raw three-point percentage at Georgia was certainly uninspiring (29%, 10th percentile positionally), but scouts noted that the mechanics generally passed the eye test, and it was evident that he was able to shoot off the dribble with very little daylight off a bevy of moves.
A free throw percentage of 77% and 60% on non-dunk rim attempts also indicated some level of touch, which pointed towards eventual improvements in jump shot efficiency. Still, becoming a good 3-point shooter, let alone one of the very best in the world, was, nevertheless, a “maybe” even in an ideal situation.
However, it’s important to draw attention to the sheer volume of shot-creation load-bearing Ant pulled off, which is a quality that tends to get underrated. The 18-year-old managed to get up 13.5 3-point attempts per 100 possessions (92nd percentile, around 52% of which were unassisted), on a 45 offensive load (95th percentile).
His ability to shoulder a large offensive burden by generating self-created threes on demand was extremely high. In fact, it’s historically unique for a player of Ant’s level of slashing ability: Ant was the only freshman in Barttorvik’s entire database (which begins in 2008) to post more than 12 3-point attempts per 100 while also dunking 27 times over the course of the season. A special intersection of youth, 3-point creation, and athletic finishing – foreshadowing a similarly unique status in the NBA today.
At the time, his high volume of self-created, often contested jump shots was interpreted by scouts, such as Rafael Barlow for NBA Draft Junkies, as bad shot selection and poor decision-making. Prez of The Strickland believed that to translate to the next level he ought to “learn good shot from bad shot”.
Draft profiles suggested that he should shift more of his focus to attacking the rim and operating more off the ball, while toning down the volume of off-the-dribble jump shots, and that if he failed to do so, he would struggle to score efficiently. Such judgments were premature. Ant was a raw 18-year-old who was stuck on a suboptimal roster – it is only natural that these conditions would lead to several ugly looks.
In a vacuum, yes, Ant should have taken fewer contested jumpers at Georgia if you look at each decision on an individual level. However, self-created jump shot volume is an important indicator of superstar potential, as it speaks to scoring feel, stamina, confidence, and the ability to create offense when the structure of the play breaks down. It can’t be your only skill, but you certainly need it if you want to be among the best.
Far from being a detriment to his NBA career, his aggression in hunting jumpers has translated beautifully, becoming the crux of his impact on the court and a significant separator between him and several of his comps.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that all shots are good shots, and a superstar who can’t find the open man when the defense loads up on him will struggle in the NBA, where his scoring aggression can become a detriment to the team.
But despite popular takes, Ant showed promising flashes as a playmaker at Georgia, and most scouting reports acknowledge as much. He was particularly adept at interior passes, averaging three rim assists per 100 (88th percentile). It was quite conceivable that he could have refined his ability to capitalize on his scoring gravity. If anything, this is one area that he hasn’t quite outperformed expectations in thus far in the league.
Add up what’s been discussed, and what did the Wolves have on their hands in 2020? An extremely young super-athlete who could both dunk on the opposing team’s center and get up 10 threes in a single half, who was used to carrying large offensive loads, who had the stop-start foundation reminiscent of historically great NBA scorers, who showed high-level playmaking flashes, and who had solid touch indicators.
Seems a lot different than how the NBA’s media was making it seem.
This is not to say that scouts were wrong about all of Ant’s shortcomings (defense and some aspects of decision-making in particular), and certain analysts, credit to them, saw the bullish case for his shot creation. But the aversion to Ant’s “hero ball” style at Georgia was a blind spot for many, as it was that tendency to aggressively create jumpers at volume that laid the groundwork for who he is today.
The Wolves are better off today for believing in Ant’s traits, stats, and tape than in the beliefs of those outside the building.