With the Singapore Grand Prix in the books, the Formula 1 grid will go quiet for a week, until the United States Grand Prix.

And a champion can now be crowned that weekend in Austin.

Kimi Antonelli is on the doorstep of his first F1 Drivers’ Championship, and could mathematically clinch that title at the United States Grand Prix later in Austin.

Here is how.

F1 Drivers’ Championship standings

Here are the current standings, including only the drivers that still have a mathematical chance at winning the F1 Drivers’ Championship this season.

Position	Driver	Team	Points	Wins
1	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	340	8
2	George Russell	Mercedes	238	3
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	229	1
4	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	221	2
5	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	215	1
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	201	2

How Antonelli can clinch at the USGP

This weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix marked the final F1 Sprint race of the season. Six race weekends remain, all in the standard Grand Prix format, meaning that on paper 150 points are up for grabs — 25 points are awarded to the winner of each Grand Prix.

That number will drop to 125 after the United States Grand Prix in Austin.

That means that to clinch the title in Texas, Antonelli needs to leave the Circuit of the Americans with at least a 125-point lead over his rivals in the title chase. He will head to Austin with a 102-point lead over teammate George Russell, and a 111-point lead over Lewis Hamilton, putting Antonelli in position to clinch in Texas.

A win in Austin, coupled with favorable results from Russell and Hamilton, would get the job done. If Antonelli wins the United States Grand Prix he would move to 365 points on the year, 127 points ahead of Russell and 136 points ahead of Hamilton before their results are factored in.

Which means Russell needs to finish eighth or higher in Austin to remain alive in the title race, and Hamilton needs to finish fourth or higher to remain alive, should Antonelli win the United States Grand Prix. We will return to these two drivers in a moment.

A win from Antonelli would eliminate Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, and Max Verstappen. At the moment Antonelli has a 139-point lead over Norris, and with a win in Austin that would extend to 164 points, and a second-place finish from Norris would only cut that margin down to 146, outside of striking range. With Leclerc, Antonelli has a 125-point lead, which would grow to 150 points with a win in Austin, and a P2 from Leclerc would only cut that margin down to 132 points, outside of striking range.

As for Verstappen, who is in prime form at the moment, Antonelli enjoys a 119-point lead over the Red Bull driver. An Antonelli win at the United States Grand Prix would grow that to 144 points, which Verstappen could only cut down to 126 points with a P2, just outside of striking range. Remember, only 125 points are available after the United States Grand Prix.

Now let’s talk about Russell and Hamilton.

Antonelli has a gap of 111 points to Hamilton at the moment, and if Antonelli wins in Austin, that would grow to 136 points. If the Ferrari driver were to finish second, he would cut that gap down to 118 points, which would keep Hamilton alive. Simply put, if Antonelli wins in Austin, as long as Hamilton finishes in the top four, he would remain alive. Should Antonelli win — and grow his lead over Hamilton to 136 points before we calculate the Ferrari driver’s finish — then a P5 from Hamilton would trim that gap by ten points to 126.

With 125 points remaining available.

As for Russell, if he finishes eighth or higher, he would remain alive in the title fight even if Antonelli wins in Austin. If he finishes ninth, he would be exactly 125 points behind Antonelli if the Italian driver were to win the United States Grand Prix, with five race weekends left. He could then — theoretically — win the rest of the races while Antonelli finished outside of the points in all of them, and finish tied with Antonelli on points.

But he would lose to Antonelli on countback, or tiebreakers.

An Antonelli win in Austin would move him to nine wins on the season. And if Russell won out from there, he would finish with … eight wins. Wins are the first tiebreaker, so if the two were to finish level on points, the title would be decided by the number of wins and since Antonelli would have nine and Russell would have eight, the title would be Antonelli’s.

However, there are some other factors to consider …

What about Qatar and Abu Dhabi?

Nothing in this world happens in a vacuum.

Including Formula 1.

Hostilities in the Middle East between the United States and Iran already forced the cancellation of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, and required moving the Bahrain Grand Prix to Malaysia. As things stand right now, the final two races of the season are set for Qatar in late November, and Abu Dhabi the following weekend at the start of December.

F1 has not announced a decision on those races — and news is expected later this month — but the sport’s governing body already cancelled Rally Saudi Arabia, as the World Endurance Championship was slated for a race in Saudi Arabia in mid-November.

Which does not bode well for Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

So, hypothetically for the moment, if we remove those two races from the schedule, then only four race weekends remain this season. And in that scenario, only 100 points are available to those drivers chasing Antonelli.

And since Russell is closest at 102 points behind … in this scenario Antonelli has already clinched the title.

Now, F1 has floated the idea of adding a race in Imola at the end of the season, should circumstances force a cancellation of both Qatar and Abu Dhabi. In that scenario, with five races remaining, a maximum of 125 points are available to the drivers over those events.

And Antonelli would need a lead of 100 points over each of his rivals to clinch the title in Austin, if the season were to finish with Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, and Imola.

What do we know for sure?

Antonelli heads to Austin with a chance to clinch his first title, and SB Nation will be on the ground covering it live.

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