The 2026-27 NBA regular season is rapidly approaching. How will LeBron James look in Philadelphia? What about Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball in Minnesota? Can the New York Knicks repeat?
We’ll see the answers to those questions soon enough. In this article I am going to give you three tips for betting the NBA regular season, and two NBA futures bets to place now.
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Let’s start with some macro strategic betting advice for this season.
Bet as early as you can
This is slightly different for every bettor, mainly based on the availability of lines to bet into and the limits offered at the time.
But it’s important to figure out when lines you have access to open up, and when you can bet enough money (small or big) that aligns with your bankroll. From there, consistently try and bet at the earliest time possible with those parameters established. NBA lines are volatile, and they will move a good amount, so the best way to get positive expected value wagers is to bet early and beat the closing line. There will be times you get a bad break on injury news, a random player resting that went unreported. Don’t let that dissuade you from the biggest edges being available earlier.
Keep track of your closing line value (CLV)
Closing line value is the most important secondary metric in sports betting.
After looking at wins and losses, profit (or deficit) and return on investment (ROI), the CLV tells the real story of whether your process was sound and if the results — usually a small sample size — were good or bad luck.
For example, if you bet a favorite -3, hope they close with a standard line of -4 or greater. That small gap in beating the closing line is the most quantifiable edge in betting. Use a bet tracking platform to help you in this. You can sync your sportsbook log-ins with one of the tracking apps so the entire process is automated, and you will get the secondary metrics done for you.
Take some time to reflect every week or so on what is closing well and what is not; do more of the good and less of the bad.
Track the injury report closely
I truly believe the biggest edge in NBA basketball the last few years has been a firm grasp on the injury report and projecting the news better than the market.
If a star player is listed as questionable, the market may price his impact on the spread and total 50-50. It becomes our job as bettors to figure out if that probability is closer to 75-25, 80-20, 90-10, etc. This can be done by tracking what the beat writers are reporting (follow them all on X). Listening or reading what players and coaches say in interviews often provides insightful context. If you become a master of the injury report, and solely bet off that news well, there is a very high probability of being a winning sports bettor, which would be confirmed by frequent CLV and betting early before news is widely known.
Good luck this season!
Here are two futures wagers I like right now.
Houston Rockets over 48.5 wins
The Rockets finished last season 52-30 in what felt like an underwhelming season. Houston consistently lacked the ability to finish teams off late in games. Now, they add veteran point guard Fred VanVleet to steady the ship, and get back Steven Adams to dominate the offensive glass and protect the rim. These additions, along with bringing in Marcus Smart — who has thrived under head coach Ime Udoka in the past — significantly raise the floor of this team. Amen Thompson and Alperin Sengun should take another leap in their development as well.
The downside for the Rockets this season is that the league changed its NBA Draft lottery rules to remove “tanking.” The worst teams are no longer outwardly trying to lose games, and therefore the floor of all teams should be raised. I still think the Rockets improved significantly by getting healthy and they will be one of the top teams in the league this season.
Their win total over is easily my favorite preseason bet. Last year when the Rockets lost Adams, they were No. 1 in offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting (his rebounding would provide space for kick-outs and high percentage looks) and second in league market rating from a betting lens.
I think the Rockets can certainly achieve being a top-five market-rated team as long as they are healthy, so their win total becomes a no-brainer over.
Player prop: Andrew Wiggins 2+ 3-pointers made per game (-125)
Last year, Miami Heat small forward Andrew Wiggins had the best shooting efficiency of his career, making 41.4% from 3-point range on 4.9 attempts per game. Wiggins has already proven capable of good efficiency on solid volume, and this year he is going to be tasked with expanding that part of his game.
The Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason and sent out a package that included Tyler Herro — the Heat’s most dependable floor spacer. Wiggins re-signed and restructured his contract to fit into this team’s core for the next few years and head coach Eric Spoelstra has raved about Wiggins this preseason. Wiggins’ starting spot in secured, and his role could be expanded.
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The Heat are also continuing with the offense coached by assistant Noah LaRoche. His style emphasizes pace and an extreme lack of on ball screens set. Antetokounmpo will be the primary creator and he will be charging downhill to try and draw a double team, and then it is passing until the free shooter is found. I expect Wiggins to increase to close to six 3-point attempts per game, which could handle an efficiency dip from 41.4% down to 33%.
Wiggins to average 2+ 3-pointers made per game is my favorite individual player prop.