We’ve made it! Week 18 of the NFL season is here and soon the playoffs will commence. But, we do have a few loose ends to tie up before we get to all that. We have the bulk of the teams destined for the playoffs already known, but there are a few stragglers and of course the dreaded jockeying for playoffs seeding. Guessing what NFL coaches will do is not something you want to make a living off of. But, we should be able to narrow this down enough to have a good idea as to who needs to win, who wants to win, and who doesn’t care if they win.
Bookmark this post, as we will continue to update as news comes in.
Teams who will play all out
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Saturday, 4:30 PM ET)
The Falcons gave the Buccaneers some late Christmas coal in their stocking by beating the Rams in Week 17. If the Falcons win this week over the Saints, the Buccaneers are eliminated from the playoffs even if they beat the Panthers on Saturday. The good news for us playing fantasy is that the NFL made that scenario moot with the Saturday game. Both teams will play for the win. If the Panthers win, they win the division and the playoff spot. If the Bucs win, they have to wait for the winner of the Falcons-Saints to decide the NFC South champion between the Panthers and Bucs.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET)
This game isn’t as desperate as win and in, but whoever wins will get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and whoever loses will fall to the No. 5 seed. This one is pretty cut and dry and both teams will play their starters in hopes for a win.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:20 PM ET)
The Steelers blew a chance to wrap up the AFC North as they laid an egg against the Browns in Week 17. The Ravens won their game against the Packers, making this matchup for all the marbles. Whoever wins, wins the North, the No. 4 seed, and the only playoff spot left in the AFC.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
The Chargers have already announced they are resting Justin Herbert. The Broncos on the other hand need a win to get the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They can still get that No. 1 seed if they lose and the Jaguars and Patriots both lose, but they won’t leave that one up for chance. They should play their starters until the game is in hand.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
UPDATE 1/4 — The Dolphins will sit running back De’Von Achane and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle for their season finale, per Adam Schefter.
The Dolphins have nothing to play for, but the Patriots could finish with the 1, 2, or 3 seed in the AFC. To get the No. 1 seed they will need to win and for the Broncos to lose to the Chargers who are resting Herbert. If the Broncos win, the Patriots just need to beat the Dolphins to get the No. 2 seed. They could also lose and as long as the Jaguars lose, they’d still get the No. 2 seed. If they lose and both the Jaguars and Broncos win, then they end up with the No. 3 seed.
The Patriots should want that No. 2 seed enough to play all out.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention for a while now and a loss can only help their draft position. The Jaguars on the other hand have come on like gangbusters and even have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed with a win. Unfortunately, the Chargers going with Trey Lance over Justin Herbert and the Patriots getting a relatively easy matchup with the Dolphins likely throws a wrench in those plans, as they’d need both teams to lose to get that coveted 1 seed.
The Jaguars do have to beat the Titans if they want to secure the AFC South title over the Texans, and the No. 3 seed though. And, a win of course gives them a shot at the No. 1 and 2 seeds if the Broncos or Patriots were to falter. They theoretically could fall all the way to the No. 7 seed with a loss. So they’re playing to win.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
UPDATE, game statuses: The Texans have announced Nick Chubb is inactive for Sunday’s game.
UPDATE, 1/4 — The Texans are expected to rest wide receiver Nico Collins on Sunday, per Jane Slater. The team can still win the division, but with the Jaguars a heavy favorite to beat the Titans, they seem to recognize they probably won’t be able to win the division. They already locked up a wild card berth.
The Colts have been eliminated and will give rookie quarterback Riley Leonard the start over Phillip Rivers. The Texans have a wide variety of seedings possible between the No. 3 seed and the No. 7 seed. A win and a Jaguars loss to the Titans would give them the AFC South title and the No. 3 seed. A win secures them the No. 5 seed if the Jaguars win, while a loss could knock them down to the No. 6 or 7 seeds. These scenarios should be enough for them to do everything they can to win this week.
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
If the Bears win, they get the No. 2 seed. If they lose and the Eagles win, they get the No. 3 seed. Head coach Ben Johnson appeared adamant that they would play to win after their loss to the 49ers. A win and they face the Packers in the first round of the playoffs. If they lose, they’ll get the No. 3 seed and either face the 49ers or Rams at home. I’d expect them to play to win, but if news changes, we’ll update this post.
Will they or won’t they?
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Game statuses: The Eagles announced their inactives and they will be sitting quite a few starters. The list includes LB Nakobe Dean, OT Lane Johnson, S Marcus Epps, OLB Jaelan Phillips, G Landon Dickerson, TE Dallas Goedert, and DT Jalen Carter.
UPDATE 1/2 — Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said he will be resting some of his starters in the season finale to get them rested for the first round of the playoffs. Players already ruled out on the injury report include tight end Dallas Goedert, tackle Lane Johnson, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips, linebacker Nakobe Dean, and safety Marcus Epps. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is also expected to sit with Tanner McKee likely to start at quarterback.
The Eagles and Bears are tied together this week as they both hope to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Bears have the inside track, as a win gives them the No. 2 seed, while the Eagles need a win and for the Bears to lose. When asked, head coach Nick Sirianni was non-committal as to if anyone would rest. The Eagles are guaranteed the No. 3 seed if they lose and/or the Bears win, but the No. 2 seed is worth playing for if they want.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
UPDATE 1/2 — Josh Allen practiced in limited fashion on Friday and head coach Sean McDermott said he is “good to go” for Sunday’s game, per Mike Rose. Notably, Rose tweeted that McDermott “[d]id not give an indication of how long [Allen would] go on Sunday. The Bills have numerous possible scenarios to secure the No. 5, No. 6, or No. 7 seed. The best guess is that Allen plays some but not all of Sunday’s game.
The Jets have been out of contention for a while now and need a loss to keep or better their current No. 3 pick. The Bills currently have the final playoff seed at No. 7, but could move up to No. 5 or 6 with a win. To move up to the No. 5 seed they’ll need to win and for the Texans and Chargers to lose. To get the No. 6 seed they’ll need to win and have one of the Texans or Chargers lose.
At this point we’re waiting on head coach Sean McDermott to give us more intel on if he’ll play starters, but we do know all world QB Josh Allen isn’t 100% right now and beating the Jets isn’t exactly that tough. If I were them, I’d rest Allen. And at this point I wouldn’t want to trust Bills starters in fantasy games.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Head coach Sean McVay says his starters will play this week, but there isn’t a whole lot to play for. If they win and the 49ers lose, they’d get the No. 5 seed. All other scenarios end them with the No. 6 seed. I could see McVay giving his starters a half and then shutting things down. I’d rather not rely on Rams players this week if I can help it.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
UPDATE 1/1 — Chris Olave will not play on Sunday. Nick Underhill is reporting a blood clot was detected in his lung. He will be fine, but is not going to play the season finale.
The Saints and Falcons are both eliminated from playoff contention, but Saturday afternoon could open the door this game to mean something. If the Bucs beat the Panthers on Saturday, a Falcons win over the Saints would clinch the NFC South for the Panthers. Even if the Panthers win on Saturday and clinch the division, Saints-Falcons is one of the more entertaining rivalries from the fans’ perspective. Whether it impacts the starting options for each team is unclear.
Teams who will rest their starters
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Jim Harbaugh announced that Trey Lance would get the start in Week 18 against the Broncos, which likely means other starters should see rest or limited work as well. But, even if all the other starters were a go, Lance is going to have a hell of a time against the Broncos defense in Denver.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
UPDATE, game statuses: The Packers have announced inactives. Among the players not playing Sunday are LB Quay Walker, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Dontayvion Wicks, S Xavier McKinney, RT Zach Tom, and LB Edgerrin Cooper. Jordan Love is active for the game, which means he will be QB2 behind Clayton Tune.
For the Vikings, RB Aaron Jones is inactive, which means Jordan Mason will get the start.
UPDATE 1/4 — The Packers will start recently acquired cornerback Trevon Diggs on Sunday, but they will rest several starters, per Jeremy Fowler.
UPDATE 1/1 — Jordan Love has passed concussion protocol, but with the Packers unable to move out of the No. 7 seed, Clayton Tune will get the start, per Jason B. Hirschhorn.
The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed, so they will rest key starters.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
The Raiders and Chiefs have no playoff hopes left, but the Raiders currently have the No. 1 pick in the 2026 drat and they’d like to keep it. They’ve sat their best defensive player Maxx Crosby and now they’re going to sit Geno Smith for a combination of Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell, per Vinny Bonsignore.